With just a handful of games remaining, the race for the top four positions and UEFA Champions League football next season is heating up.
The benefits of top four not only include a place in the Champions League, but also the revenues behind it and the increased finances and clout that can make a club more attractive to the best players available on the market this summer.
At recent estimates, a Champions League place can be worth upwards of around £20 million minimum more in prize money compared to the Europa League.
Let’s analyse the main candidates with just a few games to go…
Manchester City and Arsenal – already qualified
Newcastle United
Points: 65
Played: 34
Games remaining: Leeds United (away), Brighton and Hove Albion (home), Leicester City (home), Chelsea (away)
Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe was in bullish mood before last weekend’s clash against Arsenal, claiming that the ultimate aim is not just to qualify for Champions League football but “to catch and overtake everybody”. It is a sign of Newcastle’s lofty long-term ambitions, but for now simply finishing in the top four will do.
And this looked all but a certainty for much of the season until that game against Arsenal. Howe’s team were taught a lesson and rather comfortably dispatched by the Gunners in a 2-0 home defeat.
That loss, combined with Liverpool’s form, leaves the door open on the top three positions with just a few games to go. Any more slip ups and Newcastle could still miss out on Champions League football despite being in the top four for most of this season.
The loss of Sean Longstaff through injury for the rest of the season could potentially be a huge blow – the defensive balance he brings in midfield has been crucial to Newcastle’s recent improvement and he was clearly missed against Arsenal.
The strike duo of Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson are both firing goals which will give Geordie supporters cause for optimism – but could Newcastle’s relative lack of experience of the cold-eyed ruthlessness needed at the business end of a top four chase compared to Manchester United and Liverpool end up costing them in the final few weeks?
Manchester United
Points: 63
Played: 34
Games remaining: Wolves (home), Bournemouth (away), Chelsea (home), Fulham (home)
For all the talk of Arsenal bottling the title race, there would surely be no bigger bottling in the Premier League this season than if Manchester United were to throw away a top four place now.
A month ago Erik ten Hag’s men were 12 points clear of Liverpool with just 27 available points to play for. That gap is now down to one point – and while the Red Devils do have the advantage of a game in hand, anyone watching them play recently would be brave to suggest they can pick up the necessary nine points required to secure Champions League football.
Ten Hag’s team are spluttering towards the finish line, a mixture of one of the busiest fixtures of any team in Europe (60+ games played and counting), a long injury list and an ill-fitting and poorly constructed squad coming back to haunt them.
Key injuries to Marcus Rashford, Rafael Varane and Lisandro Martinez has seen United try to win games with left-back Luke Shaw playing as a makeshift centre-back and the unreliable strike duo of Wout Weghorst and Anthony Martial (four goals between them) trying to lead the line and score the goals.
United have scored as many goals this season as relegation-threatened Leicester City (49) and 40 fewer goals than rivals Manchester City – a sign of just how much work there is to do at Old Trafford this summer in continuing ten Hag’s rebuild. Add to this David De Gea’s recent fumbles, a terrible away record and back-to-back defeats at West Ham and Brighton and United are truly crawling to the end of the race.
Ten Hag, however, is remaining upbeat. “It’s a test of courage if we can do it because we are in the right position and we have to finish it,” he has said. For his sake he had better finish it – United fans will not be able to rest all summer if they are pipped to the top four by the old enemy Liverpool.
Liverpool
Points: 62
Played: 35
Games remaining: Leicester City (away), Aston Villa (home), Southampton (a)
Liverpool looked dead and buried in the chase for a Champions League place for much of 2023 and sat as low as eighth just one month ago behind Spurs, Brighton and Aston Villa. Their turn in fortunes however has been remarkable; they’ve since won six matches in a row to revive like The Undertaker and put the pressure on rivals Manchester United, giving themselves a real chance of sneaking into a top four spot at just the right time.
Key to their revival has been a mid-season change of tactics that saw Jurgen Klopp copy Pep Guardiola’s tactic of playing a defender in midfield, namely Trent Alexander-Arnold, who has moved into a more central midfield position.
The switch has worked a treat, unlocking all of Alexander-Arnold’s immense creativity and opening up different angles for him to operate in midfield and spray passes, whether out wide right in attacking situations or with crisp through balls from deeper in midfield. The England international has five assists in six games during that winning run, while the return to prominence of Mohamed Salah has also paid dividends.
Klopp for his part has tried to downplay Liverpool’s chances of top four whilst putting the focus on Manchester United, but privately he must fancy his team’s chances with three very winnable games remaining.
”We have to make sure we finish the situation in the best possible way,” he has said. A top four finish would certainly delight Liverpool fans and salvage what looked to be a largely disappointing season – particularly if it comes at the expense of their bitter rivals Manchester United.