In 2017, the Danish national team caught the hearts of a nation when they reached the final of the UEFA Women’s Euro in the Netherlands. They ended with a silver medal after a 4-2 loss in the final vs the host nation.
If Denmark’s national team wasn’t known to the world before that tournament, they indeed were when they returned with the silver medal around their necks. Nadia Nadim, Stine Larsen, Sanne Troelsgaard and Katrine Veje played a big part in Denmark’s success. Still, captain Pernille Harder probably got her first significant recognition to the outside world after leading her national team to what many thought before the start of the tournament would not be possible. With teammate Nadim, she shared the top scorer position in Denmark, scoring nine goals across the tournament.
Pernille Harder enters the world’s biggest stage - UEFA Women’s European Championship in England - the super Dane comes into it after winning her 7th consecutive league title, playing in three different European clubs.
Linköping FC 2016
Vfl Wolfsburg 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19 & 2019/20
Chelsea FC 2020/21 & 2021/22
Harder has been named Denmark’s player of the year no less than seven times and has won several individual awards and prizes for her achievements on a club level. To name a few:
● UEFA Player of the Year 2018 & 2020
● World Football Summit/AS Player of the Year 2020
● Goal 50 Best Player Award 2020
● Player of the Year in FourFourTwo’s 2020 Awards
● Lower Saxony Footballer of the Year 2020 as the First Women
● Germany’s Women’s Footballer of the Year 2020
● Frauen Bundesliga Top Scorer 2020 (27 goals)
● The Guardian’s world’s best player top 100, 2018 & 2020
Harder joined Chelsea in the summer of 2020, signing with the reigning Champions in England after what was said to be a world record fee within the women’s game.
With that, expectations became high. When she was interviewed in the Danish podcast Mediano after the transfer to Chelsea, she was asked about the expectations:
“I play the same football. The fact that I was sold for that amount of money and became the most expensive player, that’s for the things that I have done in the past. It’s easy to think that I should go out and suddenly do more than I did previously, but I won all these awards and got that price tag for the things I achieved before I joined Chelsea. Of course, I always want to keep developing so the price tag can be bigger next time and so I can win more awards, but about feeling the pressure? Of course, this first period since I moved, every time I’m mentioned, I’m labelled ‘The most expensive female football player’.”
“And some people seem to expect that I will dribble past a whole team and score a goal because I’m the most expensive female football player, but that’s why it’s important to be aware of your capabilities, and I’m perfectly aware of what I’m capable of doing and I know what I’ve accomplished in the past. But sure, it is possible to feel pressure in this situation, but I’ve worked a lot on my mentality.”
There are several reasons why the two seasons with Chelsea had me even more impressed by the Dane than from her time with Linköping FC and VfL Wolfsburg.
Chelsea's style of play is built on transitions which forced Harder to adapt a new style and role within the team from the same position. The style is a contrast to her previous clubs in Damallsvenskan and Frauen-Bundesliga. Let me also point out, that I’m well aware of the fact that football is a team sport and in the end, it’s all about winning, therefore it’s hard to question Chelsea, yet - there’s a feeling that Pernille Harder was seen as a Ferrari but has in reality been driven like a Fiat.
The discussion in this article comes from Harder’s event data from the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons. I try to answer questions about her role and utilisation from the 2021/22 season and its implications.
All data, the graphics with plots and numbers, are created by Jesper Haglöf, data analyst at PlayMakerAI, a Swedish football analysis platform. The stats and raw data collected come only from Chelsea’s Women’s Super League matches.
With that said, let’s plunge into Harder’s two seasons with Chelsea.
The quantitative data
Harder started 13 of her 16 league matches this season, being subbed on for 3 and missing 6 due to injury.
On average, she made 25.9 passes with 71.5 % accuracy (per 90 minutes). Harder attempted 3.36 shots per90 with a 36.2% accuracy rate. She attempted 3 crosses per game (59.5% accuracy rate) and the most important to many people watchng…she scored 16 goals and 7 assists across all competitions.
Compared to many players, Harder’s sublime and superior abilities lie in progression, awareness, and positioning. It’s not often said but Harder is not just a goal-involvement player, she is more than that and has always been.
The offensive heat map
For most of Harder’s first season with Chelsea, head coach Emma Hayes went with a 4-4-2 (diamond) formation where Harder was positioned at the top of the diamond, just behind top duo Sam Kerr and Fran Kirby. This season, Harder has played in all sorts of positions across the attack in different formations. It gave onlookers a flavour of her diverse skillset on the pitch.
Let’s start with looking at the heat map that shows all of Harder’s offensive actions from both seasons.
It’s easy to think that during Harder’s first season, she played a freer role because of the heat map, but that doesn’t tell us the whole story. The actions from the 2020/21 season are slightly more right-sided, while the 2021/22 season’s heat map shows more activity on the left, as seen below.
Role and position
Harder is a player with tremendous spatial awareness and its in-game application. With creativity, positional intelligence, smart passing and spectacular shots from areas where opponents least expect, Harder is the complete No. 10. The Dane can operate and serve as a striker, a second striker, and an attacking midfielder depending on the formation used. Multi-faceted, flexible, versatile? Take your pick.
A perfectly qualified playmaker with the traits of a striker somehow always sees her in areas on the pitch where the goal is in sight. You don’t have to look closely to see the Dane roaming effortlessly between the lines, dropping deep to link play and carry the ball into dangerous areas. A proactive player that also can react when needed.
The curious case of zone 14
In recent years Harder has been known as one fierce goalscorer but her best attributes might be found when mastering zone 14. If she gets the chance to, that is. This is the central part of the pitch imaged below.
By dividing a football pitch into a six-by-three grid, there are 18 zones. Zone 14 is the one located centrally and immediately outside the penalty area. This zone is said to be crucial for goals to happen. To get the ball into different zones, a team uses several patterns of play and passing.
From this zone, passes into the penalty area are more likely to end up as a goal. It’s also the zone also where the pass that leads to an assist comes from most often. Players who operate in this area of the pitch can therefore be extremely valuable for their teams. This is the role Harder has been known to master.
For this zone to be properly utilised, a possession-based passing style might be preferred. This is what needs to be taken into consideration when looking at Harder playing at Chelsea compared to her previous clubs or the Danish national team. It can appear that she is not performing these actions as much as she did in Linköping and Wolfsburg. This is mostly because Chelsea's playing style is more direct, which means the attacks are quick and direct where the ball is supposed to reach the attackers as quickly as possible.
Tap, tap, boom - goal.
In a Swedish podcast, Taktikpodden, Icelandic Elisabet Gunnarsdottir, who has been the head coach for Kristianstads DFF in Sweden for 12 years says that she thinks coaches need to be better at working with the players' individual abilities and qualities rather than just focusing on team tactics.
This leaves us with a BIG question; is the style of play and tactics used so far enough to win the UEFA Women’s Champions League? Does this style of play benefit all players in a starting XI and put their best abilities to use?
This question needs to be asked since Chelsea, along with Arsenal and Manchester City did not manage to compete in Europe this season. Is this time for a change?
It has backfired on Chelsea when facing teams with low and compact blocks since the options of bringing the ball up the pitch into the opponents' box aren’t as creative. Low blocks often cause a crowded penalty area where the strikers have a hard time finding the space.
Over her two seasons, Harder is the Chelsea player with the highest Expected Threat (xT) per 90 minutes in zone 14. This means that she is the player in the Blues that is creating the most threat for the opponents in this area. In the 2020/21 season, Harder’s role wasn’t as free in general as during the 2021/22 season. Yet, her xT per 90 in this zone was higher in her first season as a Blue. Bear in mind, that these numbers come from players that have played a minimum of 750 min+ in the league across the two seasons.
Take a look at the passing networks for Arsenal and Manchester United from this season to pay attention to the average position of those players that are ahead and slightly behind Harder in the image below.
Compare that to Harder while looking at Chelsea’s passing networks from the two seasons. As previously mentioned, Harder’s first season saw her play behind Sam Kerr and Fran Kirby. Sometimes we saw her dropping deeper than she used to, and, sometimes, it could seem a bit “crowded” up front.
The passing networks provide more evidence that the space for Harder behind the two strikers was a bit narrow.
The passing networks are based on the 11 players in the teams that played the most amount of minutes each season in each position.
The colour of the circle is based on the mean xT contribution for every player/connection which also shows in the coloured lines in connections.
Green: VERY HIGH
Blue: HIGH
Yellow: MEAN
Orange: LOW
Red: VERY LOW
Expected Threat is a probability model for football based on how much more likely the team's ball possession will end up in a goal when the ball is moved on the field from point A to B.
The Expected Threat evaluates correct passes and carries / dribbles of the ball. Based on this, you can determine which players contribute most to making the team's ball possession more likely to result in a goal or make the ball possession "more dangerous" / causing a threat that will lead up to a goal or a chance to score one.
This season’s network is different as is Harder’s position.
Chelsea’s pass network from the season 2021/22. The colour of the lines tell us the frequency of the passes between two players. The size of the circles does indicate the number of passes, while the colour of the passes does resemble the height of xT by that particular player.
From this network, we can see that Harder plays very high on the pitch where she is both on the end of a lot of high xT passes and does also generate a high xT. She doesn't have a high number of high xT passes, the number she does pass all have a high xT value - indicating her contribution to goal threat in the WSL 2021/22.
Harder’s heat map of offensive actions showed us that she might have been slightly “pushed” out to the left. Looking at the pass network from this season, Harder’s average starting position also indicates that she’s had a bit more space where she ended up having a more free role, often starting her actions and movements from the central parts, close to or even in zone 14. This should be given some thought. Could it be the absence of Kirby?
Even ranking the highest in xT per 90 metrics across both seasons in Chelsea, Harder’s most offensive actions came from zone 16 (see the image of zones further up). The data in the image below will back this up when comparing Harder’s two seasons regarding xT per 90 in different zones.
Harder's position on paper appears as the ‘free’ attacking midfielder, perhaps less free than in previous clubs and sometimes moved out to either right or left to benefit Kirby. The data? It says that even though Harder might have been pushed wider, she still rules (or could rule if given the task properly) zone 14.
The eye test tells us when Harder gets the chance to play the central role magical things happen. Look at the reversed league fixture against Arsenal in the 2021/22 season. Chelsea won 3-0; the Dane scored two.
The second was arguably the most delicious one of the two.
Roaming slightly behind, finding and creating the space with the adjustment of her speed, running through zone 14 just inside the box, glimpses of the Ferrari was spotted when given a chance to act and drive as one.
Ball progression
A ball can be progressed up the pitch in two different ways: either through carries or passes. Four other players in the league beat Harder in xT Carries per90 played this season, but none of them were her teammates. Lauren Hemp and Lucy Bronze of Manchester City and Beth Mead and Caitlin Foord of Arsenal.
The Dane is superior in progressing with the ball and that showed straight away after joining the Blues. She is outstanding in this metric among the Chelsea players looking at xT Carries per 90.
Carries into the penalty area (PA) per 90 down below
The high xT carries have also been more prominent from the left-hand side this season compared to the first season, and these actions from Harder’s event data are seen below.
The finer details
Having to adapt, not only to a new league, and a different style of play but also to new teammates has seen Harder make small (or big) adjustments. These details can be crucial and game-changing actions. If you pay close attention to it and have seen her play before her time in Chelsea, this is easily spotted.
The transitions and the direct play have put higher demands on the Dane and how she should, could or would utilise her abilities. But for a player like Harder, it’s all in the details. Touch before turning after receiving has become turning straight without touch, the communication (both verbally and the silent), subtle pointing in silence, making eye contact with teammates mixed with actual spoken words and more or less eager waving with one hand, two hands at a time.
What does it mean? A pass on the right foot? Left foot? In front of her, slightly behind or next to?
Opponents that most likely both have doubled or even tripled marked the Dane whenever she received a pass have also seen differences in the way she holds onto the ball, covers it with her body and dribbles it. Manchester United’s defence probably would want to forget these two goals from the current season.
Are these goals complete coincidences or the result of hard work and adjustments of details? If you have followed her career and watched her play throughout the years, you know it’s the latter.
The 2021/22 season
Let’s end this piece with some images and graphics for good measure from her second season. Starting with key passes and assists. Key passes - black, assists - yellow.
What Chelsea players passed the ball the most to Harder during the season?
Which of her teammates provided her with the most passes with high xT?
And..who got the most passes from Harder herself?
Her shot map? Here you go.
Total xG: 6.2
Goals scored: 6
Can she score? Let’s have a look.